Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Revision of US GDP and GDI... Are there implications?

US BEA revised GDP and GNI data from 2012 to 2014 in last July, and 2015's number last week. They revised these data from early 2000 to 2013 in July 2014, either. And let's see the revision history of these.

(1) In a case of GDP, In July last year, BEA lowered GDP both of until 2013 and before a financial crisis, 2009, especially. Earlier than 2009 data often lowered by about 2%p saar. As a result, current GDP growth rate became firm number not low in comparison of before financial crisis, albeit in 1Q of this year and last year the growth were somewhat low in line with too cold weather or something.

(2) In July this year, they lowered GDP in 2012 to 2014 further, whilst 2014 number was revised up. As a result, the GDP growth became to shape almost V-turn from 4Q 2011 to 4Q 2013 with a trough at 4Q 2012. This shape could justify the QE3 program started since September 2012.

(3) And last week, we saw the upward revision of this year's GDP to higher.

(4) On the other hand, in a case of GNI, it is unclear to find any implication. Anyway, the data before a financial crisis lowered. But, current GNI number seems not good unlike GDP...

Seeing the growth rate history since early 2000s, the case of interest rate hike for Fed would not be odd... Rather, they could be more speedy for closing monetary easing cycle, if inflationary pressure starts especially with wage growth as many economists have some worries about high ratio of inventories against sales in 2nd half this year...

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