Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Will El Nino likely push Commodities price Higher?

Australian officials said that a strong El-Nino weather has sent sea temperatures in parts of Pacific Ocean to their highest level since the late 1990s. But, market participants are hard to predict the real impact from this at this point...Autumn is coming...

In a agriculture price, below chart about S&P GSCI Agriculture Index, the price already had soared once in June under the expectation of this El-Nino. But, since July, intensifying worries about Chinese economy and global trade volumes, the price turned to downside.

However, recent downward movements are drawing MACD divergence likewise the picture of oil price, although WTI price turned to drop a lot yesterday. Along with this, ahead transforming cloud shape signal the possibility that the inflection point is coming...

Can the agriculture price rebound? Does it signal the end of diverging oil and other commodities price? Global inflationary trajectory goes to where?

This picture and possible story could underpin my view that the illusion about global deflation will likely diminish...

S&P GSCI Agriculture Index

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