Starting to rebound of Oil price...technical movement or the end of bear market?

Oil price is rebounding very rapidly during a last few days. WTI rose, really high, 30% from its trough in mid of last week.

I've expected the somewhat possible rebound in oil market on a chart analysis through a previous post. I referred some possible evidences and those are :

(1) MACD divergence during about 1 and half months which could signal gaining power to soar in a daily chart,
(2) MACD divergence as well since start of this year in a weekly chart,
(3) and on a cycle or breath of monthly price movement could this level could be the trough with lowest MACD level and small divergence.

Yet, many market participants argue this rebound would be a simple technically reaction from decreasing over-sold positions. And, as over-supply in oil market seems to remain for a few year with downturn Chinese economy, many players expect that the mid-term oil price could face a headwind toward downside.

In some charts as well, especially in daily and weekly graphs, negative clouds made by leading spans seems so thick to signal that upside potential could be limited further. In a comparison of these two, weekly negative cloud seems thicker, so oil price seems to rise nearly 60 dollar per a barrel.
However, by previous analysis with monthly chart, the rally could maintain during next months...

For now, let's see the main news which led the recent rally in oil market.
On a demand side, as I wrote in a previous post about the strategy, decline of China's worries underpinned the downside risk, I think.
And on a supply side which seems to lead rebound mainly diverging other commodities price, there are some important news. OPEC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, said the plan to negotiate with non-OPEC, especially Venezuela, about the amount of oil supply. Although some economists argue main decision makers in OPEC have their summer vacations now, the movement by oil producers could be realized sooner. In fact, we all have been curious why the oil price was not coincident with strong EUR recently. Because the value of EUR means the purchase power for OPEC countries, lower oil price should need weak EUR like late last year. But, recently this picture had broken. So, OPEC countries have to start reaction with lower oil price, I think.

It's hard to forecast the upside potential for oil price from now, but if the price does not tumble again and deeply, global CPI should rebound in 4Q this year as many economists had expected in 1st half this year before the additional tumble of oil price.

As a ramification, maybe in 4Q, worries about deflation or disinflation could be shrink further. Even in China, the CPI could reach almost 3% at the end of this year from current mid of 1% by some analysts' calculations.

This seems to push mid and short rate especially due to possible interest rate hike by US Fed which could signal yield curve flattening on a long-end tenor. However, if market participants start to realize so-called deflation or secular stagnation is an illusion only, we should be more cautious in longer yield with decreasing FX reserves in EM countries unlike 2004's Fed funds rate hike...