Sunday, November 15, 2015

U.S. PPI declined more than expectation...Disinflationary pressure persists?

The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index fell 0.4% during October (-1.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% September decline. The economists expected a 0.2% increase.

Producer Price Index (SA, %)OctSepAugY/Y201420132012
Final Demand-0.4-0.50.0-1.61.61.31.9
  Excluding Food & Energy-0.3-0.30.30.11.71.51.9
     Goods-0.4-1.2-0.6-4.81.30.81.7
       Foods-0.8-0.80.3-4.23.21.73.0
       Energy0.0-5.9-3.3-21.5-1.0-0.80.2
     Goods Excluding Food & Energy-0.30.0-0.2-0.1 1.51.11.8
   Services-0.3-0.40.40.11.81.61.9
   Construction1.00.0-0.12.33.01.82.9
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods-0.4-1.5


While foods price declined faster, ex-foods price declined 0.3% from previous month as well. Disinflationary pressure seems to persist during current period.

But, consumption demand is increasing and expected to continue further as labor market conditions and wage improve recently. Although PPI tends to lead CPI with lagging for some months, under this improving environment, we should wait inflation data for coming months...

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