Sunday, November 15, 2015

Euro zone 3Q GDP : lower than expectation a little bit, but growth details are better

EMU shows year-over-year GDP in a ramp up in growth to 1.6% in Q3 from 1.5% in Q2 and 1.2% in Q1. This is in line with maket expectation or a littlel bit lower. So, some news headlines said this number was disappointed.

But, its growth details was better than woes.

1) Germany : Domestic final consumption had been the main driver behind Q3 growth, supported by a solid labour market - employment rose by 0.8% y/y in Q3 - and sustained increase in wages that are boosting households' disposable income. Meanwhile, net trade contribution had been negative.

2) France : Looking through the inter-quarter volatility, the GDP data indicate that France's growth remains moderate, but nonetheless fragile. However, it is gradually rebalancing thanks to improving momentum in investment. Positive industrial production carryover, and well-oriented business and consumer surveys suggest growth momentum will continue in the next few quarters.
...But, the problem is effects from the terror in Paris...

3) Italy : Final domestic demand contributed positively while the contribution from net trade was negative.


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