Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Short thoughts about weaker Euro bonds

Recently the bond market in Euro area has underperformed against USD market with continuity of moderate soaring yields in core countries in Euro area. This movement is very desirable because I've recommended OW USD bonds against EUR bonds especially in Germany and France as I see the possibility of additional monetary easing for ECB is very low. But the rationale of current movement is not clear. In fact, it is easy to explain this as a result of reverse of carry trade. This says many positions using leverage with Euro continue deleveraging to increase cash position, so capital outflow is in Euro bond markets as well.
(And Chinese PBoC maybe sold German Bund along with U.S. treasury bonds, however, this could not be evidence of weaker Euro bonds)

But, still many economists expect additional easing program by ECB to underpin risk asset prices and unless ECB conduct further QE, ECB is more easier than U.S. Fed clearly. In Israel, central banker said negative policy rate would be possible given some conditions.

And then, current market movement with narrowing spread between UST and Bund means what?
Market starts to recognize the end of divergence of monetary policies in developed countries following me?
I continue to recommend overweight USD bonds against EUR bonds until the spread reach 100bp from current about 140bp...


And now, let's see the projection of 10 year German Bund yields on a weekly chart.
Through long MACD divergence during 8 months from September 2014 to April 2015, the power to push yields higher had been charged sufficiently. As a result, the cloud shape consist of leading spans transformed from negative to positive and current MACD level and shape seem to move higher further. It's not time to buy Euro bonds yet on both of relative trading and outright positions...



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