The spread between 10y and 30y yields widen above 75bp which I'd got the 1st target level to entry flattening position, previously. But, I will not likely take this position for now...
2. ISM manufacturing PMI in U.S. recorded 2 years low. New orders index which many participants focus on as a leading indicator was most disappointed among other detail indicators.
Someone who think ISM manufacturing index as a cycle approach thinks disappointed outcome could be continued further. Considering the burden of high inventory ratio, their thought maybe is right.
3. But, on the other hand, I think we should not only manufacturing index, but also non-manufacturing index. In major western countries, after financial crisis, service PMI indexes have showed higher number than manufacturers'. Maybe developed market economies are reforming to service industry focused more recently. If then, we should not see the real economy with manufacturing index only...
| ISM Mfg (SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 51.1 | 52.7 | 53.5 | 58.1 | 55.7 | 53.8 | 51.7 |
| New Orders | 51.7 | 56.5 | 56.0 | 63.9 | 59.0 | 56.9 | 52.9 |
| Production | 53.6 | 56.0 | 54.0 | 63.1 | 59.2 | 57.5 | 53.7 |
| Employment | 51.2 | 52.7 | 55.5 | 57.4 | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.8 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.7 | 48.9 | 48.8 | 54.2 | 55.0 | 51.9 | 50.0 |
| Inventories | 48.5 | 49.5 | 53.0 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 49.4 | 48.2 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 39.0 | 44.0 | 49.5 | 58.0 | 55.6 | 53.8 | 53.2 |
4. Car sales in U.S. recorded 10 year high in August with 2.8% yearly growth from negative data in previous month.
Do you argue high inventory ratio is main burden in U.S. economy still now?
5. BDI turned to rebound while oil price tumbled. I expect oil price would be higher again.
6. Australian 2Q GDP was disappointed. It recorded 0.2% quarterly while market expected 0.4%
7. Fitch warned Malaysia to downgrade country rating.
No comments:
Post a Comment