Friday, October 23, 2015

U.S. high inventory/sales ratio - Details

As considering economic headwinds from high inventory / sales ratio, let's see the wholesalers' data, seasonally adjusted, which contributes GDP growth mainly.

(1) Inventory ratio of non-durable goods is relatively lower than durable goods due to timely production process... Durable goods' have raised total ratio... This part is a main problem...

(2) In light of a big influence by durable goods and maybe adjustment seasonally... seasonal effect ahead of Thanks giving day seems not significant on total ratio number... 

(3) Recently, however, total ratio has been raised by non-durable goods ratio near previous high at 2009, although absolute ratio is not high... This means deteriorating of manufacturing in short-cycle, or a little bit is likely.


The details in durable goods ratio...

(4) Construction materials ratio soared recently maybe with positive property market. Unless residential economy is solid as expected by some economists, this could a main headwind next year...

(5)  Metal and mineral ratio recorded 2nd high...

(6) Auto inventory/sales ratio has soared with robust car sales... but, this would be a burden in car manufacturers apparently for next year... it's why U.S. tries to kill Volkswagen ?


In non durable goods...

(7) Apparel and chemicals ratio show upward trend, while apparel ratio is near the high in right after the financial crisis...

(8) Petroleum ratio is the lowest...





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