Global Agg Bond Investment Strategy at a glance with a Chart Pack

During last 2 years, the hot prospect in developed market was divergence of monetary policies.

But, under slower or contracted manufacturing activities and consumers' sentiment about future's economy, the possibility of Fed's fund rate hike went far away.

So, USD bonds could outperform against other regions.

Maintain quite overweight position on USD bonds for a main alpha strategy.

UST 10 yield versus Bund 10y yield

With expected dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, oil price could be underpinned and showed somewhat robust movement. EM currency and global equity markets turned stronger followed this risk appetite.

Especially, with chart analysis, JPY would be more attractive currency to buy as additional BOJ's easing tools seems restricted ahead of the election next year.

USD/JPY seems to turn around to strengthening JPY

USD/KRW moved lower as expected previously

Meanwhile, Euro is difficult to forecast...it seems less attractive than JPY...

Euro Weekly : Strong resistance of a thick negative cloud

But, convergence of M.A. lines is going to explosion toward up or down

JPY/KRW weekly : Trying higher under burden of high MACD...

On the other hand, strong JPY comes with tumbling risk asset price frequently...
But, while recent weak USD leads risk asset rally including emerging market and commodity prices, CRB index seems to maintain to gain further on weekly chart... and SHCOMP index would be underpinned within current level... whilst China CDS premium could move higher again as a mixed signal... So, I am somewhat cautious to open FX position to long JPY for now...

CRB Index Weekly : Trying to move upward more

SHCOMP index weekly : signals turn around to upside...

China 5Y CDS Premium : underpinned by a cloud? return to higher?

These mixed signals make me frustrated especially with credit position.
If U.S. equity price rises further, widened credit spread could return to narrow. Although I overweight corporate bond position, if include government-related bonds and the securitized as whole credit position, I am short against benchmark now...
On the other hand, the spread between corporate bond and mortgage widened to the highest level since 2011. So, I plan maintain to long corp. bond against mortgage... and consider to add this position by changing mortgage bond to corp. bond further...

S&P500(inverted) and Corp. OAS : what is under-valued?

Corp. bond seems more attractive than mortgage

Duration and yield curve strategies are more difficult to suggest... On yield curve, 5s30s seems stopped at a recently highest level with MACD divergence. However, MACD divergence has betrayed me often and it's somewhat cautious to change to flattener position ahead of changing cloud from negative to positive. Moreover, long moving average such as 200 days turns to slightly upward.
So, I bought UST 30y slightly today to cover a big short position in longer tenor as maintain steepener and short duration position. I should consider further about this next week...

MACD divergence in 5/30 UST Spread...ahead of changing cloud

German Bund 30y seems prepared to go higher after convergence of moving average lines. Underpinning 200 days average and slightly upward MACD signal upward direction. I continue to short on duration in Euro area.

UST 30 year chart seems similar with Bund. So, I maintain short duration in U.S. as well.

About inflation bonds, the breakeven in 10 year tenor will likely move toward higher additionally. This is contrary to my skepticism about possible high inflation toward the end of this year because recently CPI and PPI in Euro area and Korea were very disappointed lowering the overall price level which is limit for upside at the end of this year...
But, expected inflation turned to go up with eased monetary condition.
This is why I cover short duration very slightly, not fully, now...