Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Time to Overweight EM Sovereign bonds against UST?

All fear about monetary tightening by U.S. Fed, while Prime Minister in Indonesia which is one of vulnerable countries in Asia argued interest rate hike was essential to decrease uncertainty rather than increase additional market turmoil.

What is the truth?

EM bonds spreads have been widened since 2nd half last year due to oil price tumbles and strong USD very rapidly. After temporary decline in spread in 1st quarter this year caused by upturned oil price, the spread restarted to widen further with Chinese economic slowdown fears and ahead of possible U.S. Fed first rate hike.

But there is somewhat different. It's portfolio flow of debt assets from abroad to EM. According to IIF, Institute of International Finance, this inflow turned to increase since 2nd quarter this year. That said, recent price adjustment has not been with sell-off by foreign investors.

Yes. I believe Fed should raise the interest rate soon. But, while I expect bond yield to soar somewhat rapidly, EM bonds could outperform USTs, that means the spread tightening. Yet, almost participants seem to cautious to invest into EM ahead of Fed's tightening and possibly additional capital outflows.

In current environment, the uncertainty is likely more important factor in EM bonds markets.
Is it time to buy the fear?


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