Thursday, September 17, 2015

15.09.17 Daily Note : Ahead of Upcoming FOMC meeting

Ahead of FOMC meeting,

1. Oil price rose more than 5% with decreased inventories data in U.S. So, commodities exporters' currencies such as BRL and RUB were appreciated in line with others including TRY.

The WTI price met the 1st leading span in Ichimoku chart signaling resistance point, ahead of upcoming FOMC meeting... Where will USD go after FOMC meeting? And then, how about oil price? In a weekly chart, upside potential for oil price seems sufficient... Tonight, could the price break this resistance line?


2. U.S. CPI decline reflected lower energy costs and core-CPI rose minimally.

Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%)AugJulJunAug Y/Y201420132012
Total-0.10.10.30.21.61.52.1
Total less Food & Energy0.10.10.21.81.71.82.1
  Goods less Food & Energy-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.5-0.3-0.01.3
  Services less Energy0.10.20.32.62.52.42.4
 Food0.20.20.31.62.41.42.6
 Energy-2.00.11.7-15.0-0.3-0.70.9

3. The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo, NAHB index, improved to 62 (5.1% y/y) from an unrevised August level of 61. It was the highest level since October 2005 and beat expectations for 61 in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

Housing market seems quietly residential for now.
How the market will be after starting to tighten monetary policy by Fed?


4. Euro area headline and core inflation rates were revised down by 0.1pp to +0.1% and +0.9%, year over year, respectively, from flash data.

And there are other news,

5. China liquidated a record $83 billion in U.S. treasuries in July, via Z.H


6. Glencore, reviewed at a glance in previous post, said it raised $2.5 billion by selling new shares to a select group of institutional investors. The stock issuance is part of a $10 billion plan to cut Glencore's debt.

Below is a daily chart. MACD divergence signals the possible upturn soon...


7. 8.3 Magnitude earthquake strikes off coast of Chile.

8. S&P downgraded Japan's sovereign credit rating to A+ from AA- yesterday due to weakening economic growth, while no impact is on local government bond yield...

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