Monday, August 17, 2015

Japan to Re-open Currency Wars?

Below chart is consist of JPY REER as a white line on inverted y-axis and Japanese household's real disposable income growth yoy% as a orange line.

Today, Japan announced 2nd quarter's GDP as a decreased -0.4% on a quarterly base in line with market expectation. After that, some strategists re-start to argue re-open currency war by BOJ in terms of policy tools, because Japanese economy is loosing momentum.

Under declining popularity rating of Abe, however, should BOJ increase their asset purchases?
Many criticized Abe as an Abenomics transfers income from households to firms, which also cut wages. Real disposable income in household should be increased following JPY depreciation, but we could see the big gap between these two.

If then, we maybe could face a headwind of unwinding eased monetary policies, earlier than expect...


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