Eurozone 2Q growth of 0.3% was below expectations, 0.4%, reflecting inventory cuts. Ex-inventories growth was 0.4-0.5% quarterly, so it means about 2% yearly growth rate indicating to continue somewhat firm growth.
However, in terms of growth breakdown, main portion of growth is spurred by weak currency boosting exports sector. That said, as consider possible spill-over effect from advantages by exports with weak currency to capex and so on, 2Q GDP seems somewhat lower, albeit it was affected by declined inventory mainly, especially in Germany. Other core countries including France are similar with Germany, but they were moderate.
In regional contributions, Spain was a star country, clearly. Spain recorded 1.0% growth rate on quarterly base following 0.9% in 1Q, which means annual almost 4% growth.
Among core countries, Germany's 2Q GDP grew 0.4% from a quarter earlier, mainly amplified by exports sector, as wrote above. The positive contribution of German net exports can be roughly estimated at 1% in last quarter by LSR. So, excluding net exports, real GDP was well down with weak capex growth.
Current relatively weak economic activities despite some advantages from weaken currency mean additional encouraging economic sentiments are needed more. Considering this, it's somewhat difficult that long-end rate starts to fly higher, until late of this year.
However, in terms of growth breakdown, main portion of growth is spurred by weak currency boosting exports sector. That said, as consider possible spill-over effect from advantages by exports with weak currency to capex and so on, 2Q GDP seems somewhat lower, albeit it was affected by declined inventory mainly, especially in Germany. Other core countries including France are similar with Germany, but they were moderate.
In regional contributions, Spain was a star country, clearly. Spain recorded 1.0% growth rate on quarterly base following 0.9% in 1Q, which means annual almost 4% growth.
Among core countries, Germany's 2Q GDP grew 0.4% from a quarter earlier, mainly amplified by exports sector, as wrote above. The positive contribution of German net exports can be roughly estimated at 1% in last quarter by LSR. So, excluding net exports, real GDP was well down with weak capex growth.
Current relatively weak economic activities despite some advantages from weaken currency mean additional encouraging economic sentiments are needed more. Considering this, it's somewhat difficult that long-end rate starts to fly higher, until late of this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment