Monday, August 17, 2015

CNY devaluation weighs on Asian EM economy

Unless this is so-called currency war directly, it would weigh on Asian EM economy clearly.
Below chart was attached in Citi's report. We maybe exclude trade through Hong Kong in Taiwan in this number. Anyway, we could understand current rapid depreciation of MYR and tumbling Malaysia's financial assets price with this. Asian EM had been relatively calm against other EMs such as LATAM and CEEMEA since both of in 2H2013 of QE taper tantrum and 2H2014 of dropped oil price, which was underpinned firm current account balance and the status of importers of oil, respectively.

However, the environment as Chinese starts to depreciate their currency, whether it lasts for a long time, the pace is much faster, or not, Asian EMs are likely underperformer at least.
In Malaysia, the fear from this seems almost come, and the woes is maybe coming in Korea recently.

How long does this picture last? I have no idea, but the momentum looks somewhat strong, for now.



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