Chance to enter flattening position of 10s30s in UST market

We have waited for somewhat long time to curve steepen in US treasury market. Especially in the spread of 10 year and 30 year, so called 10s30s, has started to narrower from start of July in this year, to mid of 60bps from 80bps at the inflection point.

And recently, the spread widened fast due to possible unwinding from flatteners spurred by lowering possibility of Fed funds rate hike in this year as external woes arise especially in China.

I think we should approach the 10s30s spread as a range from 0 to 100bps of a historical range for a few decades except for the period of QE. With this analysis, and as not start to hike the Fed funds rate yet, I have recommended to enter the flattening position above 75bps of the spread which means 25% of ongoing tightening of a whole monetary policy cycle.

And now, the spread is above 73bps and the chart analysis seems somewhat favorable to do this.
The spread value is reaching the 2nd leading span with reflecting the effect of volatility from the sharp shape of the cloud by leading spans. Additionally, lagging span met the previous value at that time and current value faces changing to a negative cloud from next month.

On the fundamental sides, the flattening position will likely be effective strategy, I believe.
Market players continue to consider the timing to hike funds rate as a start of monetary tightening, and it would be in Sep. or Dec. in this year. If Fed decide to hike their policy rate in September, the upward pressure of bond yields would be especially in short-end and mid tenor as very low inflationary pressure weighs on long-end tenor yields. That said, in a current circumstance, the monetary tightening for now means the possible yield curve flattening.
If Fed couldn't start monetary tightening within this year, it would mean the massive lack of global demand. If then, the yield curve should go to narrow as long-end yields tumble.

While I expect return to be flattening from current spread of yield curve, I have some problems to forecast the direction of bond yield whether toward higher or lower from now on. I have thought the lower momentum of growth and inflation should continue to weigh on the long-end yields for 3rd quarter, but it would be September, the last month of 3rd quarter, soon. On the other hand, we faces a big headwind from Chinese capital outflows problems. As I posted yesterday, it seems not a financial crisis in China, if then, Fed will start to hike rate at last.

Where is the higher possibility tilted toward? I was surprised because of soared German Bund yield rather than US treasury yield last night. It could mean the drought of liquidity or possible normalization of both of monetary policy and the spread between core countries in Euro area and U.S. At any case, this signals the upside potentials for bond yields. However, economic headwinds and the woes from China are saying the need to be more cautious for now...