15.08.12 EUR/USD...it's not my picture, absolutely...

I've believed EUR/USD should start to fly with somewhat volatility after the ramification of convergence in all kind of moving average. And today, EUR is showing strong move soundlessly cracking not only convergence spot of from 5MA to 200MA, but also a negative cloud. The momentum of strengthening EUR seems so strong.

However, it is not my picture, absolutely.

I've seen EUR appreciation as driven by Euro area's fundamental and monetary policy amid improving economic indicators spurred after the end of stress test in European banks and upward inflation. I expected EUR appreciation against USD, albeit I believed US Fed should start monetary tightening earlier than them, seen in 1994's rate hike by Fed.

Contrary to my hope, EUR is moving higher due to weakening expectation of USD appreciation caused by re-start of currency war as China attends. In this circumstance, strong EUR could mean negative impact on the sentiment of economic recovery and inflationary pressure in line with possible additional dovish stance from ECB.

(Additionally, the money flow seemed to turn back to Euro area invested in Asian fund in EUR due to the woes from Chinese event)

So, somewhat frustrated... I should start to buy long-end UST modestly.

On the other hand, how will oil price react on this? Is this mean upside potential for oil?