Thursday, November 5, 2015

U.K. October Services PMI - Upside surprise but only temporary? Maybe Not

The October Services headline PMI in United Kingdom beat expectations, coming in at 54.9, up by 1.6 points from 53.3 in September.

Service sector, in fact, led firm growth in 3Q GDP and it seems the positive condition is continuing.

For now, the problem is what is more important. The momentum or condition. I think most participants have expected plunging economic indicators with deflationary pressure and bet on it. Although the momentum, for example than 3 months ago, seems a little bit slower, the whole economic environment appears very firm.

Like other developed countries, on the other hand, the worries about recently subdued manufacturing sectors remain and fiscal tightening will continue for some quarters. But private sector in U.K. is very resilient.

Today is super Thursday for U.K. ahead of BOE meeting and adjusting inflation forecast.
Pessimists will lose.


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