Thursday, November 5, 2015

No one knows inflation...?!

Fed suggests Philips Curve as a main measure of inflationary pressure. They maybe expect upcoming inflationary risk as labor market has improved recently.

But, see below chart showing traditional Philips Curve has not been working excluding only 1960s. It suggests the correlation between labor market condition and inflation is not significant.


Monetarian, especially Milton Friedman argued "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." But, this is not explaining current disinflationary environment neither.

And so, who knows the inflation?
How we expect inflationary pressure in near future?

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