Friday, September 4, 2015

Global Banking Claims Part 2 : China seems not a potential clue of financial crisis

Let's see the global banking claims on a borrower's side. Sadly, BIS does not provide list of counter party nations about cross-border claims. Albeit they provide only foreign claims, sum of cross-border claims and local claims, we could find an implication about the real destination of Chinese money and a difference of this against other countries.

BIS provides only major countries as a borrower from global banks such as main countries in Euro area, UK, US, and Japan and Korea. Those countries represent main capital demand of the world, although the portion of western countries is tilted more.

Below charts point this. China is different. The destination of Chinese banks claims, despite somewhat noise from considering not only cross-border but also local claims, is not focused to main capital demand countries. We could estimate Chinese banks are lending capitals to ultimately domestic, but located in off-shore companies more than other countries. Those positions are predicted somewhat massive.

And, if then, additional decline in Chinese banks' cross-border claims could be limit and the effect would be more constrained than by other countries' banking sectors...

Source : BIS, As of 1Q 2015

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