Although August trade data, especially imports data seems somewhat negative news for Chinese economy, SHCOMP index closed at a higher level during the day, +2.9%, and then western stock markets gained more than 1-digit percent.
Previously, I noted we should not believe trade data by NBS of Chinese Government because the difference between that data and my own estimation calculated by the numbers of Chinese main trade partners' exports to China has been somewhat massive.
But, for now, I realized the main trade partners I used for calculation, US, Euro area, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, are all not commodity exporters. So, we should consider commodity price growth rate as see the difference.
CRB Index yoy% is often in line with the spread between NBS data and my own estimation according to below chart. For example, in 2011, Chinese NBS imports data was higher than my own estimation numbers as commodities price soared to boost nominal import value of commodities.
But, in 2012, contrary to downward pressure of commodity price yearly, China NBS seemed to overstate their imports data in order to veil or decrease imports economy turmoil.
And then, how about for now?
Albeit China NBS announced August data, our data doesn't follow August data yet. Our July data pointed subdued imports economy with just slower pace for decreasing, while property prices started to turn recently.
Anyway, recent imports data does not seem overstated. Rather, August data lower than expected seems somewhat positive as considering lowest level of commodity price growth.
Maybe, and as I believe, Chinese economy did not start to tumble, but to turn around slightly...although the pace would be slow for a long period...
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